(SAWT) Public Opinion Research & Democracy Promotion
Dr. Nader Said-Foqahaa & Dr. Bader Al Araj
I. INTRODUCTION
On 4 May 2011, Fatah and Hamas announced a surprise Reconciliation Agreement in Cairo. The Agreement included articles on elections, security, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). It also stipulated the need to consensually form an interim unity government and to appoint a prime minister. The parties agreed to form the government by the 16th of June 2011. So far, Fatah and Hamas have failed to implement any significant part of the Agreement or to garner any tangible results.
A few days before the June 16th due date to declare the government, the Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) polled a representative sample of 1,500 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. The results of the poll reveal a complex set of variables highlighted in AWRAD’s June poll that will affect the Palestinian political landscape as a new government takes shape.
In the current climate of the ongoing Arab Spring, the results of the poll imply that the fate of any new government will depend on its willingness and ability to address public priorities.
The poll reveals the need to tackle the following interrelated issues: the sources of legitimacy for the new government, the ability of the government to deliver tangible results in priority areas as perceived by the public, the high expectations regarding political and civil rights and freedoms in both regions, and finally the capability of each of Fatah and Hamas to hold a majority support under the continuing deterioration.
II. WEAK SOURCES OF LEGITIMACY FOR THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT
A. Historic support for elections
For the past twenty years, Palestinian opinion polls have demonstrated consistent majority support for regular and free elections. Since the start of the political division, AWRAD’s polls have consistently illustrated support for elections as the best means to resolve the dispute between the parties.
This sentiment was further supported by AWRAD's latest poll, conducted June 12-13. In the poll, an 84 percent majority of respondents insisted that the parties should fully adhere to the timetable in the reconciliation agreement that stipulates holding national elections within one year.
If given the option, many would choose to hold the election immediately; the polls showed that 40 percent supported holding an immediate election.
B. Fatah and Hamas are inadequate sources of legitimacy
While Fatah and Hamas continue to be the two largest organized political groups, their support base is slipping away. An AWRAD poll conducted in October 2009 poll revealed that support for Fatah and Hamas was at 60 percent.
At the time, the percentage of independents, undecided and nonvoters was 35 percent. Two years later, popular support for both parties combined is 44 percent (31 percent for Fatah and 13 percent for Hamas). The percentage of independents, undecided and nonvoters has jumped to an unprecedented 50 percent. At this point, neither party can claim to represent a majority of Palestinians.
The downward spiral in the popularity of Fatah and Hamas during the past four years implies that any new government will not be able to rely on a popular support base.
The absence of the other small political parties from the negotiations over the government (with a combined support of 6 percent) adds to the complexity. Protesting their exclusion, the representatives of these parties decided not to participate in the unity government. As a result, a government appointed on the basis of a Fatah-Hamas agreement will not have sufficiently popular and partisan base.
C. Faint trust in the intentions of Fatah and Hamas
Even before the failure of the two parties to reach a timely agreement on the unity government, the majority of AWRAD June poll respondents had doubts about the ability of the two parties to successfully form a government; half (48 percent) said that they were “very skeptical” or “somewhat skeptical.”
In addition, 56 percent of respondents expressed their fear that the upcoming government will be controlled by Fatah and Hamas. Only one-third of respondents trust that the interim government will have sufficient power to make independent decisions, while the majority of independents and supporters of groups other than Hamas and Fatah have fears that the government will be controlled by the two parties.
The new government will also be met with skepticism within Palestinian civil society. Doubt about the intentions of Fatah and Hamas concerning the new government is more widespread among civil society staff than government staff.
Palestinian civil society is known to be vibrant and vocal, with representation of intellectuals, influential community and media leaders, and democracy activists. The lack of trust towards the interim government on the part of large number of Palestinians, and its weak popular and partisan bases is likely to strongly affect its ability to achieve the complicated tasks that await it.
III- SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEMANDS
Dwindling support for Fatah and Hamas and faint trust in their intentions are accompanied by the need to immediately meet complicated socio-economic and political demands and priorities. AWRAD’s latest poll reveals that any future government will have to deal with extremely difficult issues and priorities.
A. Economic development and employment generation
When asked what should be the top three highest priorities for the new government, nearly half of respondents (47 percent) selected “economic development and employment generation” as their top priority.
The deterioration of the Palestinian economy is a direct result of the policies of the Israeli occupation that include roadblocks, checkpoints, and boarder restrictions and closures (as cited by the World Bank).
For the last 15 years, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has relied heavily on foreign aid, which is contingent upon political international, regional and local developments.
The disbursement of PA tax returns is controlled by the Israeli government, leading to periodic crisis. Unemployment rates have reached about 22 percent and poverty rates as high as 80 percent in some Gaza regions. The re-building of the Palestinian economy—and of Gaza in particular—will be one of the major areas of concern for any new government.
B. Security promotion
The second most important priority for the new government, as indicated by AWRAD poll respondents, is the improvement of security (19 percent). Given the realities on the ground, this will be no easy task for any government. Security improvement is especially complicated in the case of a government of dependents with a framework of reference to the two parties: Fatah and Hamas. The PA lacks full control over the security situation in the West Bank and the actions of the Israeli military and settlers go unabated. Given this, there is a strong need to reunite the security forces and judicial systems in Gaza and West Bank.
C. Recognition of an independent state
The recognition of an independent Palestinian state was the number three priority identified by AWRAD poll respondents.
Starting with the PLO and the Presidency, the government will have to work hard to continue building the institutions of the state to meet international demands and standards. In addition, seeking United Nation (UN) recognition will lead to further economic and political complications.
Any cut of funds will dilute the ability of any government to deliver on the other priority areas and will negatively influence health, education and other social services.
III. CONCLUSION: GREAT EXPECTATIONS
The Palestinian public expects that the formation of an independent unity government will lead to major improvement in their political and civil rights and freedoms. A majority expects improvements in the areas of freedom of press and speech, personal freedoms, human rights, periodic elections, and political arrests by both parties.
This comes as no surprise, as the two governments in the West Bank and in Gaza have matching records of human rights violations and restrictions on personal freedoms.
A new government must be fully equipped to tackle the complicated tasks that await it. It must reclaim a broad base of legitimacy through the support of the vast majority of Palestinians. The role of the PLO and presidency must be reviewed to assess their potential influence on the upcoming government.
The best course of action under these circumstances is to abide by the majority position of holding election as soon as possible. An election will energize the political will among the Palestinians, encourage participation, gauge true support for the various political parties and reveal any new shifts in the Palestinian political landscape.
As such, any new government must ultimately be legitimized through a popular election. The planned elections for local councils (October 2011) might be the first building block in regaining legitimacy and representation in PA institutions.
IV. ABOUT THE ARAB WORLD FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
Founded in 2005 by Dr. Nader Said, AWRAD is an independent Palestinian public research firm located in Ramallah, Palestine.
AWRAD conducts social, political and economic research through sound and rigorous methodology and an array of research tools including surveys, opinion polls, focus groups, in-depth interviews and case studies. AWRAD’s clients include international government and non-governmental institutions such as the World Bank, the European Union, the United Nations, USAID, and the International Republican Institute (IRI).
AWRAD provides its clients with reliable and timely data, analyses and recommendations on a range of political and development-related issues. AWRAD supports the diverse initiatives that improve the capacity of Palestinian institutions. AWRAD’s strength is derived from its staff of renowned experts from the region’s most prestigious research centers. Dr. Nader Said, AWRAD’s president, leads a talented staff of filed researchers, facilitators, data experts and statisticians whose diverse experience enables AWRAD to provide a unique perspective on a rapidly evolving sociopolitical landscape.
VI. ABOUT صوت SAWT
AWRAD continues to conduct public opinion polling and policy research to support democratic and developmental discourse among Palestinians. صوت SAWT is an Arabic word (noun) that has two powerful and relevant meanings: “Voice” and “Vote.” صوت SAWT, the program, will be the voice of the Palestinian public in policy-making forums.