Polls

6 February 2008: Public Opinion Index for Governorates
  • Governors of Qalqilya, Tulkarm and Hebron get the best evaluations, whereas Governors of Jabalya, Rafah, and Gaza City were at the bottom of the list 
  • PLC members representing Qalqilya, Ramallah and Jericho get the highest evaluations, whereas the representatives of Gaza, Jabalya and Rafah governorates get the least favorable evaluations 
  • Support for Hamas is highest in Gaza City (29%) and Deir Balah (25%).

In its latest national poll, the Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) also asked questions concerning district-level issues in all 16 districts in the West Bank and Gaza. To analyze the data, AWRAD created an index composed of a number of indicators to evaluate the performance of various institutions and parties in each district.

The index includes an evaluation of Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) members, governors, government services, local councils and the overall feeling of security. The results illustrate the difference between the percentage of those who evaluated the institutions positively (excellent or good) and the percentage of those who evaluated their performance negatively (less than average or weak). The difference between these two percentages is presented as plus or minus values to indicate positive and negative evaluation.

In a few cases, the value is zero to indicate that the positive evaluation and the negative evaluation are equal.

Additionally, the poll assesses the popularity of all political groups in each district. The results for Hamas and Fateh are presented as percentages of respondents voicing their support in each district.

The current presentation shows the results for a poll conducted in January 2008 and another in November 2007, which not only allows for comparison, but also helps determine overall trends in each district. The districts were ranked according to the results of both November 2007 and January 2008 polls.  

The national sample size is 3200 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%) and the sample size for each district is 200 (with a margin of error close to plus or minus 5%). Dr. Nader Said, General Director of AWRAD, confirmed that the data shows significant differences between the view of respondents in the West Bank and Gaza, where Gazans are less satisfied with the performance of all institutions compared with West Bank respondents.

In addition, the sense of insecurity is higher in many West Bank districts including Jerusalem (under Israeli control) than most Gaza districts despite the fact that Gaza was under attack during the field work phase.

The following are the main results of the poll:

  1. Governorates' Offices:
    In both polls (November 2007 and January 2008), the governor's office of Qalqilya received the highest positive evaluation (+40, +40). It was followed by the Nablus governorate (+28, +25) and Salfit (+23, +24). The governorate of Tulkarm is in fourth place (+15, +13), followed by Ramallah (+21, +5) and Jericho (+12, +12). The lowest evaluation went to the Jabalya/North Gaza governorate (-38, -13), followed by Rafah (-19, -29), Gaza (-20, -19) and Deir Balah (-11, -14).
     
  2. PLC Members
    The evaluation of PLC representatives tends to be on the negative side. That is natural given the fact the current PLC has not functioned during the last two years. In most districts, the evaluation was on the negative side. Still, the Qalqilya respondents gave their representatives the highest positive evaluation (+16, +11). Qalqilya was followed by Jericho (+12, 0), Ramallah (+4, +1) and Salfit (+8, -5). All other PLC representatives received evaluations that were more negative than positive in both polls. The least positive evaluations went to the representatives of Nablus (-17, -27), Rafah (-24, -24), Khan Yunis (-38, -15) and Jabalya (-44, -11). 
     
  3. Government Services
    The respondents were asked to evaluate the services provided by government institutions in a general sense. The most positive evaluation was in Qalqilya (+33, +31), followed by Tulkarm (+33, +21), Salfit (+27, +26), Jericho (+26, +23), and Hebron (+31, +12). The least favorable evaluations were in Deir Balah (-2, -4), Rafah (-3, -12),Gaza City (-14, -19), and Jabalya/North Gaza (-29, -13).
     
  4. Local Councils
    The evaluation of local councils was general to all local councils in the districts. This poll recognizes that there are differences between one council and another. The data however shows the overall evaluation of councils in each district, which would help the Ministry of Local Government to detect which districts need more attention. In general, the evaluation of local councils was on the positive side. In Gaza, this might be due to their increasing role in providing services under the closure. The councils of Hebron and Qalqilya districts were evaluated most positively, +51, +41 for Hebron and +40, +41 for Qalqilya. In third place, was the district of Ramallah (+44, +21), followed, by the Tulkarm district (+35, +23) and Salfit district (+31, +24). The least favorable evaluation went to the local councils in the districts of Jabalya (-22, -13) and Gaza City (-36, -13).
     
  5. Feeling of Security
    Palestinians were questioned about their feeling of security for themselves, their families and their property. This question was only posed in the January 2008 poll. The results show that the percentage of those who declare feeling insecure is higher than the percentage of those who declare feeling secure in all districts. The lowest sense of security was felt by the respondents in the Bethlehem (-49), Ramallah (-46), Jerusalem (-35), Khan Yunis, Jenin and Nablus (-32 each) and Tubas and Jericho districts (-31 each). 
     
  6. Support for Fateh
    Support for Fateh varies greatly from one district to another. The data shows that its support has declined by about 10% in the West Bank and Gaza since last November. The bulk of the decline was in Gaza. Fateh, however, receives its highest support in the districts of Qalqilya (41%, 53%), Jabalya (43%, 38%), Deir Balah (43%, 38%), Rafah (39%, 39%) and Khan Yunis (49%, 27%). The lowest support for Fateh is in Jerusalem (22%, 22%).
     
  7. Support for Hamas
    Support for Hamas is highest in the Gaza City district (24%, 29%), followed by Deir Balah (14%, 25%), Rafah (14%, 25%), Jabalya (15%, 22%), Khan Yunis (15%, 19%) and Hebron (17%, 18%). The lowest support for Hamas is in Nablus (8%, 5%), which was previously known to be a stronghold for the movement as illustrated in the 2006 PLC elections.
  • For more information, please contact Team Leader - Dr. Nader Said, at  [email protected], or 00970-2-2950957.
  • With support from the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI).
  • For More details, please see this file
  • For Arabic Press Release, please see this file
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