Field work: 15-17 October 2008
Sample Size: 1,200 Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza
Margin of error: +3 %
Introduction:
The Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) carried out a national opinion poll in the West Bank and Gaza during the period of October 15-17, 2008. The poll questioned Palestinians on the following issues: the on-going Palestinian dialogue taking place in Egypt, evaluation of the government and the President, presidential and legislative elections, conditions in Gaza and the American elections. AWRAD interviewed a representative sample of 1200 Palestinians of all socio-economic backgrounds.
Main Findings:
This poll’s results show the following significant findings and trends:
- About 50 percent of respondents oppose the continuation of digging tunnels between Gaza and Egypt; 65 percent of Gazans oppose the continuation of digging these tunnels.
- Eighty-six percent of Gazans believe that the tunnels, dug between Gaza and Egypt, benefit only a small group and not society as a whole.
- A majority of 55 percent support holding Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections as soon as possible. Only 17 percent would like to see the elections postponed until 2010.
- A similar majority of 52 percent supports holding both legislative and presidential elections at the same time.
- Thirty-eight percent believe that Hamas is not serious about the dialogue taking place in Egypt, while 26 percent believe that Fateh is not serious.
- Forty-eight percent are optimistic about the success of the dialogue, while 44 percent are pessimistic.
- Forty-one percent of respondents feel that Haniya’s government is guilty of more human rights violations than the Fayyad government. Fifty percent of respondents in Gaza believe the same.
- Seventy-two percent see the Haniya government as a “Hamas” government, while 52 percent see the Fayyad government as a “Fateh” government.
- A continuing increase in the positive evaluation of the Fayyad government in terms of improving the economy and the security situation.
- Sixty-one percent view Fayyad's performance in improving the economy positively, while only 29 percent view the performance of Haniya in the same filed positively (42 point difference).
- Sixty-five percent view the performance of the Haniya government in improving the economy as “weak”, and 52 percent view its performance in improving the security situation in Gaza as “weak.”
- Seventy percent of respondents in Gaza negatively view the performance of the Haniya government in improving the economy.
- Sixty-three percent evaluate the performance of President Abbas positively.
- Abbas, Marwan Bargouthi, Mustafa Bargouthi or Salam Fayyad could win in a presidential election over Ismail Haniya. The latter could only win in a competition against Mohamed Dahlan.
- If elections take place today within a proportional election system, Fateh would receive about 49 percent of the vote, and Hamas would receive 29 percent. Democratic -independent groups (including small parties) would receive about 18 percent.
- Fifty-six percent believe that the outcome of the American presidential election will influence the Palestinian situation.
For More Details, please see the following:
English Report
Arabic Report
For more information, please contact Team Leader - Dr. Nader Said.
With support from the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI)