10 March 2009: National Dialogue, The Reconstruction, Evaluation of governments and Palestinian Elections.

Field work: 26-28 February 2009

Sample Size: 1,193 Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza

Margin of error: +3 %

Main Findings:

The results of the poll show the following significant findings and trends:

One: The War on Gaza  

• Forty-three percent say that the war could have been avoided

   Palestinians were asked whether the latest war in Gaza could have been avoided:

1. Fifty percent of Palestinians believe that this war could not have been avoided. 
2.  Forty-three percent believe that it could have been avoided. 
3.  This belief was equally shared by both West Bank and Gaza respondents. 
4.  Another 8 percent are not sure about the issue.

• Almost one third of Gazans believe that the main purpose of the war was for Hamas to consolidate its popularity

1. The largest group of respondents (42 percent) believes that the main purpose of the war from a Palestinian point of view was to lift the closure and open the Gaza border crossings. The largest group of respondents (42 percent) believes that the main purpose of the war from a Palestinian point of view was to lift the closure and open the Gaza border crossings.  The largest group of respondents (42 percent) believes that the main purpose of the war from a Palestinian point of view was to lift the closure and open the Gaza border crossings.  The largest group of respondents (42 percent) believes that the main purpose of the war from a Palestinian point of view was to lift the closure and open the Gaza border crossings.  The largest group of respondents (42 percent) believes that the main purpose of the war from a Palestinian point of view was to lift the closure and open the Gaza border crossings.  The largest group of respondents (42 percent) believes that the main purpose of the war from a Palestinian point of view was to lift the closure and open the Gaza border crossings.
2. However, 29 percent of the respondents say the main purpose was to consolidate Hamas’ agenda and support. This is true for 31 percent of Gaza respondents and 27 percent of West Bank respondents.
3. Another 14 percent say that it was to support Palestinian resistance. 
4.  Approximately 15 percent are not sure.

Two: The Reconstruction of Gaza

The Arab and international community pledged financial resources for the reconstruction of Gaza.  Respondents were asked to choose the most appropriate party and personality that should be responsible for handling this financial support:

• Independent national and international mechanisms are most preferred

1.  About 27 percent preferred a unity government comprised of all political parties to be responsible for the management of financial support allocated for the reconstruction of Gaza. 
2.  Independent (non-partisan) mechanisms were, however, more trusted: about 20 percent supported the option of an independent Palestinian committee and another 19 percent preferred an Arab-International committee. 
3.  The PNA, represented by Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad, received 17 percent of support compared to 14 percent support for the government in Gaza represented by Ismail Haniya .

•  No leader has a clear popular mandate

1. Split of trust among leaders on who should be responsible for the management of funds to reconstruct Gaza. 
2.  In total, 42 percent trust one of the nationalist leaders (Fayyad at 16 percent; Mustafa Bargouthi at 14 percent and Abbas at 12 percent). This is compared with 27 percent who prefer Haniya for the job. 
3.  It is noticeable that about one third of the respondents do not trust any of the listed leaders.

Three: Performance of the Governments

The poll assesses the degree of satisfaction among respondents in relation to the Haniya and Fayyad governments.

• Fifty-seven percent of Gazans believe that the Haniya government violates human rights and 50 percent of West Bank respondents say the same about the Fayyad government

1. In terms of human rights violations, half of the respondents think that the Hamas government violates human rights to varying degrees. About 40 percent do not share that view. Another 10 percent responded “don’t know.” 
2.  The same applies to the Fayyad government, where over half of the respondents believe that it violates human rights to one degree or another. About 35 percent of the respondents think that it does not violate human rights. Another 13 percent responded “don’t know.” 
3.  The most interesting finding here is that Gazans are much more critical of both governments; where about 40 percent say that the Haniya government definitely violates human rights and one third say the same about the Fayyad government.

• Gazans evaluate the performance of Fayyad more positively than Haniya

1. . Over 46 percent of Gazans negatively evaluate the performance of the Haniya government in fulfilling basic needs. In comparison, one third of Gazans feel the same way about the Fayyad government. 
2.  In the field of education, 41 percent negatively evaluate the performance of the Haniya government, compared with 31 percent of them who feel the same way about the Fayyad government.
3. The same applies to their evaluations in the field of health.
4. They both receive the same evaluation in terms of “promoting steadfastness.”

• Both Fayyad and Haniya receive less favorable evaluations in the West Bank

1. While 33 percent in Gaza give Fayyad a positive evaluation for his government’s provision of basic needs, only 25 percent share this view in the West Bank.
2. The same applies to the Haniya government, where 30 percent in Gaza give it a positive evaluation in providing basic needs, while only 21 percent in the West Bank feel the same way.

Four: National Dialogue

• Forty-one percent of Gazans feel that Hamas is not serious about the national dialogue

1. Thirty-four percent of respondents think that Fateh is more serious in convening the national dialogue to reach unity, compared with 27 percent who think that Hamas is more serious. 
2.  Interestingly, the poll shows that more respondents in Gaza (41 percent) think that Fateh is more serious, compared with only 29 percent among West Bank respondents (12-point gap).  
3.  About 34 percent think that neither Fateh nor Hamas is serious about convening a national dialogue to reach unity. 
4.  In the West Bank, 38 percent feel that both parties are not serious, compared with 29 percent in Gaza.

Five: The PLO

Khaled Mashal, the president of the political bureau of the Hamas movement, called for a new frame of representation for the Palestinians as a substitute to the PLO. Respondents were asked if they support him or not.

• Sixty-four percent of the Palestinians and 71 percent of Gazans oppose Mashal’s call

1. The majority of Palestinians (64 percent) oppose the call by Mashal to establish a new frame of representation as a substitute to the PLO.
2. In Gaza, 71 percent opposed his call, compared with 59 percent in the West Bank. 
3. One quarter of the respondents support his call. 
4.  About 11 percent are not sure.

• One fifth of respondents believe that the PLO is not the sole representative of the Palestinians

1. One fifth of respondents do not believe that the PLO is the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
2.  In contrast, 57 percent fully believe that the PLO is the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. In addition, 21 percent believe that to some extent.

Six: Palestinian Elections

• Elections now are supported by the vast majority of Palestinians 
   

1.  The majority (81 percent) of respondents support conducting presidential and legislative elections as soon  as possible as the best means to resolve the current stalemate between the political groups (Fateh and        Hamas). 
2. Only 15 percent do not support this idea.

• Marwan Barghouthi, Mahmoud Abbas, Ismael Haniya and Mustafa Barghouthi are the most popular Presidential candidates.  Salam Fayyad, Khaled Mashal and Mahmoud Zahhar are the least popular

1. In a competition for popularity, Marwan Barghouthi (20 percent), MahmoudAbbas (19 percent) and Ismael - Haniya (17 percent) are the most popular presidential candidates.
2. They are followed by Mustafa Bargouthi with 8 percent.
3. The least popular are Khaled Mashal (5 percent), Salam Fayyad (3 percent) and Mahmoud Zahhar(1 percent). 
4.  Abbas, Marwan and Haniya are all more popular in Gaza than in the West Bank.
5. Mashal is more popular in the West Bank than in Gaza.

• Marwan Barghouthi, Mahmoud Abbas and Mustafa Barghouthi win over Hamas candidates

The poll presents a number of two-way races for presidential elections. The following results present AWRAD's predictions for an upcoming election. This is calculated based on the percentage vote among those who declare that they will vote (likely voters). 

Mahmoud Abbas 62 percent in Gaza vs.28 percent for Khaled Mashal  
WBG: In a two-way race, Abbas receives 58 percent and Mashal 42 percent.
WB: Abbas receives 55 percent and Mashal 45 percent
Gaza: Abbas receives 62 percent and Mashal 28 percent

Marwan Bargouthi wins over Khaled Mashal
WBG: Marwan receives 69 percent and Mashal 31percent.
WB: Marwan receives 68 percent and Mashal 32percent
Gaza: Marwan receives 68 percent and Mashal 32 percent

Fayyad vs. Haniya
WBG: Fayyad and Haniya are in a tight race with about 50% each.
WB: Fayyad receives 47 percent and Haniya 53 percent
Gaza: Fayyad and Haniya receive 50 percent each

Mustafa Barghouthi vs. Haniya
WBG: Mustafa Barghouthi wins over Haniya, where he receives 56 percent and Haniya 44 percent of the vote.
WB: Mustafa receives 58 percent and Haniya 43 percent
Gaza: Mustafa receives 54 percent and Haniya 46 percent

• Fateh leads, but with no majority, in a parliamentary election

The following results represent the voting pattern among Palestinians who say that they intend to vote, while adding the margin of error to the benefit of Hamas. If parliamentary elections took place, the poll shows the following predicted results:

• Fateh would receive 46 percent of the vote, a three-point decline since the October 2008 poll.
• All other democratic and independent lists would receive about 16 percent of the vote (a two-point decrease from earlier polls).  Among them the group that receives the most votes is “Independent Palestine.”  
• Hamas would receive 30 percent of the vote, a two-point increase since the October 2008 poll.
• Fateh would receive the same vote in West Bank and Gaza (about 46 percent).  
• In the West Bank, Hamas would receive more votes (32 percent) than in Gaza (29 percent).
• Other Islamist groups (Islamic Jihad and Hizb Tahrir) would receive about 5 percent.
   

For More Details, please see the following:
English Details↓

Arabic Report ↓

Arabic Details ↓

For more information, please contact Team Leader - Dr. Nader Said.
With support from the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI)