AWRAD conducted a survey targeting Palestinian community leaders. The survey was supervised by Dr. Nader Said- AWRAD’s President. The results of the survey show that 80 percent of the respondents support conducting the Local cCouncil election on its intended date (17 July 2010). In addition, 74 percent stated that they intend to vote.
The survey was conducted between 18 and 19 May 2010, with a sample of 345 community leaders in seven cities in the West Bank (Ramallah, Al Bireh, Hebron, Jenin, Qalqilya, Tulkarem, and Nablus). The survey targeted public opinion leaders, representatives of families, businesses, political groups and civil society organizations. Most of the personalities interviewed were independents or supporters of the PLO and other nationalist and leftist groups.
The survey aimed at assessing the situation at the community level, regarding needs, priorities and characteristics of potential candidates. Moreover, the survey intended to assess the feasibility of different scenarios in terms of coalitions and potential lists. The overall support for potential lists was assessed. In addition, the survey compiled the names of potential candidates who were nominated by the interviewed community leaders.
A list supported by known personalities:
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Results show that 42 percent of respondents would be willing to vote for a list led by President Mahmoud Abbas.
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About 23 percent revealed that they are more likely to support a list supported by Prime Minister Dr. Salam Fayyad.
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Another 9 percent would support a list supported by Dr. Mustafa Bargouthi, the General Secretary of the Mubadara.
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Furthermore, 6 percent would vote for a list supported by Ahmad Sa’dat, the General Secretary of the PFLP,
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4 percent will vote for a list supported by Ismail Haniyeh, a Prime Minister under the national unity government.
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17 percent indicated that they would vote for a list supported by another national personality.
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These percentages vary between the cities, where in Ramallah a list supported by Fayyad might receive the highest support, followed by a list supported by Bargouthi. In Al Bireh, the percentages are close for a list supported by Fayyad and a list supported by Abbas.
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The survey also explored the respondents’ predictions for the lists that would get the highest votes on Election Day. About 47 percent expect that a list supported by Abbas will receive the most votes, followed by a Fayyad-supported list (27 percent).
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About 6 percent predict that a list led by Barghouthi might win, and 5 percent for Haniyeh list and 3 percent for a Sa’dat list.
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About 12 percent predict that a list supported by another national personality will win.
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In Ramallah, more than one third expect that a list supported by Fayyad will win, compared to 29 percent who believe that a list supported by Abbas will win. Similar results are observed in al Bireh.
Independents will play a significant role
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50 percent would support a list that is PLO-oriented, composed of Fatah, PFLP, PPP and Fida.
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27 percent of respondents say they would vote for a list of independents. Furthermore, a list of Hamas and Islamic groups might receive 5 percent of the elite’s support.
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Al Mubadara might receive 4 percent, and the PFLP 2 percent.
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The percentages vary greatly from one city to another. A list of independents might receive 51 percent of the elite’s vote in AL Bireh and 44 percent in Ramallah.
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While a list led by Fateh might receive one third of the respondents votes in Al Bireh and 25 percent in Ramallah
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In general, 65 percent expect that a list led by Fateh will win in general. About 19 percent expect the independents might win and 6 percent expect that a list led by Hamas will win.
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Only 3 percent of respondents expect that the Mubadara will win, and 1 percent the PFLP.
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About 6 percent expect that another list will win in the elections.
Characteristics of the candidates:
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There was a general agreement among the respondents on the basic characteristics of the desired candidates for the LocalCouncil elections. Among the most important ones are the following: integrity, transparency, honesty, good reputation, belonging to the community. In addition, professional competence, educational attainment, experience, and leadership skills were also high on the list of the interviewees.
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Despite the importance of these parameters in all cities, the results show some variance depending on the city. In Hebron and Al Bireh, for example, the respondents have more stress on religiosity and moral values. In Ramallah, respondents value openness to the other and to the world, awareness of the importance of personal freedoms, democracy and modesty.
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In Tulkarem, the respondents stressed professional competence and specialization (engineering) and acquaintance with the outside world. In Qalqilya, respondents emphasized the importance of non-factionalism.
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In general, the survey reveals a major decline in the value of party affiliation and partisan parameters in selecting a candidate or a list.
Needs and Priorities:
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In general, respondents in all seven cities in West Bank agreed upon the importance of continuing to develop the infrastructure of the cities (i.e., water and electricity networks, road repair, and sewage systems). In addition to that, employment generation and economic development projects were emphasized. The respondents, as well, concentrated on the importance of cleanliness, environmental issues, and developing the cultural life and public parks for families and children.
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Priorities vary from one city to another, depending on social, political and economic variables.
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For example, in Ramallah, Jenin and Al Bireh it was noted that there is a need to organize traffic in the center of the city, and locate special places for markets out-side the cities’ centers to alleviate the traffic congestion.
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Whereas, Tulkarem and Qalqilya, are more interested in establishing parks and gardens and in tree planting. In Qalqilya also, there was focus on the consequences of the wall and the closure on the well-being of the residents. As for Nablus, the respondents mentioned the importance of reviving the economic situation and the cultural life.
Dr. Said: Elections will change the local political map
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Dr. Said, AWRAD’s President, confirmed that this election will lead to fundamental changes in the Palestinian local political map. It will also constitute an opportunity to for the emergence and reinforcement of new types of political streams and coalitions. In general, the elections will reinforce the role of the PLO and other national and independent forces.
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Dr. Said argues that the independents will play a primary role in determining the results of the election, as no party could guarantee to win the elections on its own, even with the Hamas’s formal non- participation. In contrast, Dr. Said believes that this formal absence of Hamas will make the elections even more interesting and highly contested with the emergence of new forces based on political or familial grounds. Hamas will also play an influential role through the families and some of the independent lists and personalities, in order to guarantee a quisi but active presence within the Local Councils.
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Dr. Said’s analysis of the results reveals that no one faction could win in any of the major cities unless it includes other (wining elements) such as: reputable credible public personality, and professionally competent individuals. Moreover, for a list to win it should include a sizable number of independents who are well respected.
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Dr. Said expects that the competition will be fierce one in all cities, between the lists supported by Fateh, and lists of independents and other lists formed around familial and factional basis. The elections will be highly contested in Ramallah, Al Bireh, Hebron, and Nablus.
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In addition to that, Dr. Said stated that the formation of the lists will depend on the nature of each city. In Ramallah, for example, the fortunes of an independent list will be higher than other places. Despite the importance of Fateh’s role in the city, a coalition of leftist forces including the PLFP, Al Mubadara and PPP, in alliance with well known families, will be competitive.
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Qalqilya would vote for a (Fateh) list, if it was fortified by reputable independent personalities. Whereas, Tulkarem would support a PLO list led by an independent with strong presence of credible Fateh candidates. As for Hebron, it might be heading for change. On the contrary, Nablus might be going back the (good-old-days) as articulated by some respondents.
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Still, an independent list supported by Islamic-leaning personalities and other nationalists from the opposition has a winning chance in Nablus.
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In Al Bireh, Qalqilya and Jenin, the familial composition and the stature of the members of any list will play a major role. It is difficult to gauge the situation in Hebron until the lists are finalized.
For more detailed results, please see the follwoing files: